Ingredients

• 1kg bread flour
• 800 ml (80% of mass of flour) distilled water
  • Note: Use 750 ml (75% mass of flour) when getting used to the recipe
  • I used to use tap water. In Cape Town this works. But in Pretoria the tap water doesn’t work so well with the recipe. Store bought distilled water works really well.
• 2 grams [2% mass of flour] of sea salt
• 1 pack of dried instant yeast
• 1 Tupperware bowl with a cup of water to wash your hands

Recipe

Do this when it’s cold:

Add 100 ml water, the packet of yeast and 1 tablespoon of the flour to a mixing jug. Let it sit for 10 minutes for the yeast to activate before beginning the recipe. If you did this step, you can add this mixture to replace the yeast in Step 2.

When it isn’t cold:

1. Mix all the flour and salt together.

2. Empty the packet of yeast to the flour mixture. This is important as the salt has a habit of killing the yeast. So the salt first needs to first be diluted into the dry flour before putting the yeast into the mixture.

3. Then add all the water into the dry mixture. Now its time to get your hands dirty (Your hands will get dirty unless you have a dough hook and a food processor).

4. Get your hands dirty by mixing all the dry ingredients with the water to form the dough.

5. Continue kneading the dough until is has a smooth outer layer.

6. Thereafter, cover the dough in a large bread mixing bowl. I use a large 5L Tupperware bowl.

7. Let it rest for 1 hour in a warm and non-windy space. This is called autolysis (where the flour gets hydrated by the water and forms gluten).

   1. Gluten is a protein formed by the growth and stretching of wheat based dough. The dough grows and stretches as it rests. The crumb and texture of the bread is formed through the development and baking of the gluten structure inside the bread.

   2. I usually close the large Tupperware container, wrap it in a large blanket, and place the dough inside a large cupboard.

8. After 1 hour has passed, the dough should have doubled in size and become slightly bubbly.

9. Open the Tupperware bowl and begin kneading the dough to remove some of the air out of the dough. Be careful of not to pop all the bubbles inside the dough. The crumb and texture of the dough is a result of these bubbles that grow in the dough.

10. Knead the dough until it forms a shiny outer layer.

11. Thereafter, cover the dough in a large Tupperware bowl and let it rest for an hour in a non-drafty and warm space. After an hour the dough should have doubled in size.

12. Smear a layer of layer on a large cooking surface. Open the Tupperware bowl and flip the container over to remove the dough from the Tupperware. Be careful of not to pop all the bubbles inside the dough.

13. Wet a large chef’s knife to cut the dough into two equal parts. Cut the dough and shape each part into a loaf shape. Again, place in in a non-drafty and warm space.

14. Pre-heat the oven to 240° with the fan off. After 15 minutes of the oven pre-heating, insert 3 ice blocks into the bottom of the oven.

    1. It makes sense that the fan should actually stay off. Our goal for the first couple of minutes baking the bread is to steam the bread allowing it to grow as possible before the outer layer sets properly. Our aim is to get the oven as hot as possible while remaining wet as possible. The moisture in the oven will allow it to steam well.

15. After the oven has pre-heated for 25 minutes, place the bread into the oven

16. Bake for 30-35 minutes until the crust is golden brown

17. Remove from oven and let cool on a wire rack for at least 30 minutes before slicing

18. Enjoy your freshly baked bread!

These are my thoughts on my own market moves. Gosh it is pretty scary. So I am writing it down to so that I can reflect on the thought processes that I used to make these decisions.

##Portfolio Structure

Cool. So I am splitting my portfolio into a 85/15 split between a set of alpha and beta holdings. Alpha holdings are the core compounding assets. Beta assets are the interesting assets to own in the porfolio, but they introduce risk to the porfolio. In this case risk is good, I will be exposing my portfolio to the opportunity to 10X part of my portfolio. Hopefully this will materialize. But I will be also be exposing myself to possibly loosing that money too. But yeah, hopefully that doesnt matter.

The alpha assets are more stable holdings that are used to act as a baseline for the rest of the portfolio. These assets are designed to keep up with the market and keep my portfolio in the game. Currently my alpha is made up of 10X Global ETF, and Bitcoin. I need to diversify this further by including some kind of mineral. Currently I am looking into silver, and want to also look into PGMs. I think there are opportunities in both of these markets, and I can happily buy a mine that produces either.

The juice in this meet is mostly in the beta though. The beta is the interesting part of the portfolio. But it is only allowed to be interesting if the beta is managed well enough. My beta assets are split into three stocks that I will be buying into: one tech company, one consumer retail company, and lastly a company in the resources sector.

So each company will make up 5% of my total portfolio. This is pretty high. But it is a risk I am willing to take. At some point I might end up diversifying this further. This is just a small step towards portfolio management.

Cool. So that was my intro, I didn’t want to put the cart before the horse and felt that I needed to get down the portfolio construction before I do the sexy part of stock picking. The first stock that I am wanting to pick is the retail stock of the beta part of ny portfolio (NYSE: Dis).

But first, why did I decide on Disney?

At first I was stuck between the Nike (NYSE:NIKE) and the Disney (NYSE:DIS). The idea with choosing between these two companies was to find retail companies that have deep consumer brands that people recognise throughout the world. This was inspired by Warren Buffet’s reason of choosing to invest in Coca-Cola back in the 90s.

On top of this, I want to buy into a company that is in the trough of consumer sentiment. This is important to me because it seems like most stocks in the NYSE is currrently overvalued and most of this excess value comes from the market sentiment. I am using a periodic dip in market sentiment, that is reflected in price performance. Nike and Disney seem to meet these requirements. So the choice is between them.

The main reason I chose Disney over Nike is that when I compared very superficial financial comparison. At least superficially, Disney is operating succssfully. It is profit generating, and growing. This is a positive reflection even with the negative short term sentiment around Disney.

When I look at the financials, Disney is also managed really well. It has reduced its leverage significantly, and it represents a lot of value.

I also like that Disney’s physical brick and mortar assets are spread accross the world. This reduces Disney’s risk to geopolitical concentration and its affect to Donald Trump’s trade war.

Nike on the other hand is heavily affected by the trade war, and I want to reduce my exposure to that. Nike manufactures most of its aparel in Vietnam and most of its sales are made in the USA. I see significant pain experienced by Nike. I will keep it on my radar and it might become a beta play in the next couple of years.

How I felt buying Disney

I felt a little rushed in deciding to buy Disney. But in reality, I was not rushed at all. I actually took waay too long to action the decision. My buying point was when the stock hit 80 USD. It did hit 80USD in the 2025 market crash. So I am going to buy R50 000 worth of it. I also don’t like the cost of buying this share on Easy Equities because of the transferring of ZAR to USD. So I might look into reducing this cost because I am wanting to buy the other stocks in other financial markets (Possibly AUD, Thailand, or China).

I am buying this stock on 14 April 2025. The stock price is currently 84USD. Two weeks ago it was 120USD. The market was shocked by Donald Trump’s trade tarrifs. The irony of this is that I am celebrating this huge decline in the cost of the NYSE:DIS stock. But at the same time, the value of the ZAR decreased in relation to the value of the USD. So on one hand I beat the market. While on the other hand, it beat me.

This is a long term buy, and I will be DCAing into the stock on a monthly basis. I am hoping to continue doing this until I retire one day. So in a sense, there is no exit strategy. But I know that is something I do need, an exit strategy. So when will I exit the Disney Stock?

Flip, it is hard to think of reasons for this. But I don’t want to exit based on a life event. It might be that when Anwen and I get married, buy a house, or make a big life change, I could end up liquidating the portfolio which would include exiting the stock.

A second reason of exiting the stock, won’t be around price action. I like to think of that I can ride out price action. But one thing that will make me action my exit strategy would be obvious business risks. These include the fundamentals of the business changing significantly, or external regulation pressure. I would not want to continue buying shares in Disney if they get unfairly bullied by governments, or their industry through regulations.

But I am not too concerned about consumer sentiment if it does not reflect negatively in the companie’s fundamentals.

I also had a look into the brands that Disney owns, and they are pretty impressive. We engage with these brands almost daily. Almost everytime we switch on our TV. Gosh, I just googled the list and it is pretty crazy: List of assets owned by the Walt Disney Company - WikipediaList of assets owned by the Walt Disney Company - Wikipedia

I will add to this list over time. But for now, this should be okay.

ChatGPT Financial Analysis

Nike Financials

1. Earnings Growth

• Recent Performance: In its fiscal third quarter, Nike reported adjusted earnings of $0.54 per share and revenue of $11.3 billion, surpassing expectations. ​Barron’s

• Future Outlook: Despite the positive quarter, Nike warned of potential revenue and profitability challenges ahead, including a possible double-digit decline in sales. ​New York Post+1Barron’s+1

Assessment: While Nike has shown resilience in recent earnings, the forecasted challenges suggest caution regarding sustained earnings growth.​

2. Valuation Metrics

• P/E Ratio: Trailing P/E is 24.25, and forward P/E is 43.05.​StockAnalysis

• PEG Ratio: 13.66, indicating a high valuation relative to expected growth.​

• P/B Ratio: 8.20, which is considered high.​

Assessment: Nike’s valuation metrics suggest the stock is priced at a premium, which may not be justified given the anticipated earnings challenges.​

3. Debt Levels / Financial Health

• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.86 as of November 2024, indicating a moderate level of debt. ​GuruFocus

• Interest Coverage Ratio: Nike’s EBIT is $5.9 billion, with an interest coverage ratio of 20.84, suggesting strong ability to meet interest obligations. ​Simply Wall St

Assessment: Nike maintains a healthy balance sheet with manageable debt levels and strong interest coverage.​

Overall Evaluation: Nike demonstrates solid financial health but faces potential earnings headwinds and appears overvalued based on current metrics. Investors should weigh these factors carefully when considering an investment in Nike.

Disney Financials

financeturn0finance0

Here’s how The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) measures up against three key objective stock-picking metrics:

1. Earnings Growth

• Recent Performance: In Q4 2024, Disney reported a 39% increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $1.14 and a 6% rise in revenue to $22.57 billion.

• Future Outlook: The company anticipates high single-digit adjusted EPS growth in 2025 and double-digit growth in 2026.

Assessment: Disney demonstrates a strong earnings rebound with promising growth projections.

2. Valuation Metrics

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 32.08 (trailing), 18.10 (forward)

• PEG Ratio: 1.42

• Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 1.75

Assessment: The forward P/E suggests a more favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth. A PEG ratio of 1.42 indicates that the stock is reasonably valued when considering its growth prospects.

3. Debt Levels / Financial Health

• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.42 as of December 2024, down from 0.63 in 2020, indicating a steady reduction in leverage. citeturn0search2

• Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.7x, suggesting that Disney comfortably meets its interest obligations. citeturn0search5

Assessment: Disney’s decreasing debt-to-equity ratio and strong interest coverage reflect prudent financial management and a solid balance sheet.

Overall Evaluation: Disney exhibits robust earnings growth, reasonable valuation metrics, and a healthy financial position, aligning well with objective investment criteria.

Would you like assistance in comparing Disney to other companies or exploring additional investment metrics?

So to start off, if life Is defined about the ways that I am spending my time, I am quite a multi-faceted person. I work a 9-5 job at a government institution doing research as an electronic engineer. This covers most of my day but it scratches my itch for curiosity and is a cool place to implement ideas. The problem here is that I spend so much time go-go-going and moving. But unfortunately, I don’t take much time to reflect.

Reflecting has always been an intention of mine. I always tell myself that I am wanting to spend Friday afternoon’s just writing for fun. Documenting work projects, ideas, personal anecdotes, etc. On top of this, I am wanting to publish this writing. There is an edge that is removed. An aside, I am wanting to set this intention to give it an edge, but I realized that when I think about publishing something into the world the level of quality that I put into something that is a whole lot higher. But this isn’t just a me thing, this is something that I am beginning to realise is human nature. At first, these things won’t be a very glamorous. I am going to vibe code a website and host it using github pages, which I already set up. Hopefully I can be consistent with this and I make the time to prioritize this. Because I actually enjoy writing.

So I actually enjoy writing, but I tried journaling for the past few months using a pen and paper. But the intimidation of an empty page just scars me. It is waaay easier to let my fingers flow on a keyboard. So I think I will continue like this.

But besides work and writing, I have many other hobbies. There are so many things that are important to me. And writing them down will help me define the things that are important to my soul. Let me try to make sense of all this fog that is clouding my priority list. So lets brain dump all the stuff that I want in life. Gosh, there was a time when I wanted few things and that wasn’t too long ago. But now, I don’t even know where to start.

So what do I want.

I want to enjoy my parents getting old and my family growing. Being around them and celebrating their wines, and grieving their losses gives me so much purpose in life.

I want to be an astronaut. This goal has progressively become more and more clear to me. It inspired my choice to spend time doing the piloting license. So yeah, now I am doing a piloting license.

I want to secure the freedom to do the things that I actually choose to do. I believe that tapering my consumption is part of this equation. I do not want to consume unnecessary things in my life and I realise that everything that I consume that is not in alignment with anything on this list is almost wasted. So I want to reduce my consumption, and instead create the things that I think I need.

Reducing my consumption of unnecessary things will free up money (building up a habit of saving), and free up the time that I would have spent consuming the thing that I ultimately don’t want. So I have to then think about how I want to spend this excess time and money in ways that align with what I want.

Cool, with all this money that I am saving, I want to build this savings habit. Then begin investing the excess money. The savings habit will be exercised through building savings automation, which will redirect all the excess into investment accounts. Building up wealth to fund the things that I choose to do.

Then to spend the extra time I have I can let me creative, and learning juices flow. I have so many ideas that I want to implement. These ideas aren’t all for a monetary profit. But I want to spend my time with people I like, and doing things that I like. So I want to spend more and more time with my friends, I want to wake up next to Anwen, I want to stay healthy, I started brewing my own kombucha, I want to print my own T-shirts of a painting where I was the muse. I want to go on hikes. I want to attend festivals. I want a great sex life. I want to learn to become a pilot of pivot my career into some sort of propulsion/aviation. I want to travel, see the world, and run. I want Anwen by my side. I want status. I want to figure out what the 5 year old, 18 year old, and 21 year old Dean was inspired by and do those things so that I can look back at this time

This isn’t all my wants, and this list will probably grow. But it captures